The forecast for M&A in Ireland during the second half of 2024 and beyond is somewhat unsettled. There are certainly reasons for positivity – but also several potential headwinds remaining.
The good news is that the economic outlook appears brighter – not least given the European Central Bank's (ECB) first interest rate reduction for five years, announced in early June. Analysts are split on when other central banks will begin loosening monetary policy, but both the UK and the US are expected to follow the ECB's lead in the coming months. This is one reason why the IMF is more upbeat in its growth forecasts for 2025 – it expects advanced economies to expand by 1.8% next year, up from 1.7% in 2024; in Ireland, its forecast is for 2.5% in 2025. Political anxiety should also begin to ease, particularly following November's Presidential elections in the US.
That said, Ireland's electoral timetable remains a feature, with recent opinion polls making it difficult for dealmakers to predict what the next government might look like. Other factors include the introduction later this year of Ireland's new foreign direct investment screening regime, which places more onerous regulation on some overseas bidders for many Irish companies and will make deal timetables less certain.
With such a mixed picture, making predictions about the future direction of M&A in Ireland is fraught with difficulties. Still, large parts of the market have remained resilient in recent months – as economic and political volatility recedes, confidence should begin to return even more broadly.
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