Analysis by Julie Dautermann, Competitive Intelligence Analyst
This update helps automotive suppliers inform their legal and operational decisions to help address challenges and opportunities. Contact your Foley relationship partner, or Ann Marie Uetz, Vanessa L. Miller, or Nicholas J. Ellis, to follow up.
Key Developments
- U.S. new light-vehicle sales totaled 13.7 million
units in 2022, representing an 8% decline
from 2021 and the lowest volumes since 2011, according to analysis
from LMC Automotive.
- The Detroit News reports
GM sold 2.27 million new vehicles in the U.S. last
year, representing an increase of 2.5% from 2021 and making it the
top ranked U.S. automaker based on sales
volumes.
- Wards Intelligence reports Canadian
new light-vehicle sales reached 1.52 million units in
2022, representing an 8% drop from 2021.
- Foley & Lardner addressed the potential impact to electric
vehicle manufacturers of the renewable fuel standard environmental
credit ("e-RIN") in recent proposed regulations from the
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
- Foley & Lardner Partner Craig Dillard is
quoted in the Insider article, "The race to make electric cars cheaper is making
electric cars more expensive," discussing the impact of
lithium availability on electric vehicle (EV) pricing.
- Approximately $33 billion in new automotive and battery
factory investment was pledged in the U.S. between January
and November 2022, following new factory commitments of $37 billion
in 2021, according to analysis by the Center for Automotive
Research excerpted in The Wall Street Journal. CAR
estimates recent factory investment is up by more than eightfold
from two decades ago, and the increase is attributed to the shift
to electrification and federal subsidies for domestic battery
manufacturing.
- LMC Automotive predicts U.S. light vehicle production
capacity will increase by 2027 to over 25 million vehicles
at 108 plants, up from nearly 21 million vehicles across 88 plants
in 2018.
- China's Contemporary Amperex Technology
Co. (CATL) was the top global EV battery maker in
2022,according to data from SNE excerpted in Bloomberg. The analysis indicates
CATL has more than double the market share of its closest
competitor.
- The KPMG Global Automotive Executive Survey
released in December indicates a median expectation for
battery-electric vehicles to represent 25% of the U.S. new
vehicle market by 2030, compared to a median expectation
of 50% in the previous
edition released in 2021.
- S&P Global Mobility estimates the number of electric vehicle charging stations in the U.S. must quadruple through 2025 and increase by over eight-fold by 2030 to meet projected EV sales demand.
OEMs/Suppliers
- A number of major automakers reported full-year 2022
U.S. sales volume declines compared to 2021 results: Toyota sold 2.1 million units, representing a
9.6% decline; Stellantis sold 1.5 million units (-13%); Hyundai and Kia sold 1.4 million units (-1%);
American Honda reported sales of under one
million units (-33%). Ford sold 1.8 million units last year (-2.2%);
however its EV sales more than doubled to over 61,000 units.
- According to partial data from the National Traffic Safety Administration excerpted in Forbes, Ford reported the most U.S. vehicle recalls among major automakers in 2022.Searchable data can be found via NHTSA Recalls by Manufacturer.
Electric Vehicles and Low Emissions Technology
- According to a report released January 9, the
Alliance for Automotive Innovation estimates more
than 652,000 EVs were sold in the first three quarters of 2022,
representing 6.5% of all U.S. light-vehicle sales during the time
period. The category of EVs in this estimate includes battery,
plug-in hybrid, and fuel cell electric vehicles.
- As part of its energy predictions for 2023, Wood Mackenzie projects U.S. electric vehicle sales
will reach over 2 million units this year.
- The U.S. Treasury Department and the IRS defined certain terms
including vehicle classifications and "final assembly"
found in the Section 30D Clean Vehicle Credit
under the Inflation Reduction Act, according to an
update released on December 29.The agencies are
expected to issue proposed guidance
for critical mineral and battery component
requirements in March 2023.
- The Biden administration released the U.S. National Blueprint for Transportation
Decarbonization which is intended to guide future policy
decisions, R&D and deployment in the public and private
sectors. Among the goals within the report are the targets for
50% of new light vehicle sales to be zero-emission by
2030, and 30% of new medium and heavy-duty truck
and buses to be zero-emission by the same timeframe.
- Tesla delivered 1.31 million vehicles in 2022,
representing growth of 40% from 2021.The company had previously
expressed a goal to achieve 50% average annual growth in
vehicle deliveries.
- Stellantis announced plans to acquire a stake in
Symbio, a Faurecia and Michelin joint venture
focused on zero-emission hydrogen mobility.
- GM is voluntarily recalling certain 2017-2023 model
year Chevrolet Bolt EVs due to a seat belt
component which could cause a vehicle's carpet to ignite in the
event of a crash.
- At CES, Sony revealed an EV prototype called Afeela, which
will be built through the company's mobility joint venture with
Honda. The vehicle is estimated to begin
deliveries in North America in 2026.
- Mercedes-Benz announced plans to build a global network of
10,000 high-power EV chargers by the end of the decade. As part of
this goal, the automaker will partner with MN8
Energy and ChargePoint in North
America.
- Amazon and EVgo will provide
a new service powered by the Alexa voice
assistant to help EV drivers locate and pay for charging
sessions.
- Stellantis announced a five-year agreement with Australian miner Element 25 Ltd. to secure supplies of manganese sulphate monohydrate for electric vehicle batteries.
Automated, Autonomous or Connected Vehicle Technologies
- CES 2023 included a focus on automated
driving technologies for commercial vehicles, according to
an update from Transport Topics.
- Qualcomm and Salesforce plan to develop a new connected vehicle
platform for automakers, according to an announcement at CES last
week.
- As part of a partnership announced at CES, Foxconn will manufacture electronic control units (ECUs) for vehicles based on Nvidia's DRIVE Orin chip made specifically for computing in connected and autonomous vehicles. Foxconn will also use Nvidia's DRIVE Hyperion sensor suite for its upcoming electric vehicles.
Market Trends and Regulatory
- On December 20, the U.S. Environmental Protection
Agency released a final rule to update emission
standards for heavy-duty vehicles and engines which take
effect with the 2027 model year. The new standards are intended to
reduce smog and soot pollution, including a projected reduction of
nitrogen oxides emissions from heavy-duty vehicles in 2040 by more
than 40%. In support of its Clean Trucks Plan, the agency intends to
separately issue additional rules which will begin in model year
2027 for "Phase 3" greenhouse gas (GHG) standards for
heavy-duty vehicles, as well as proposed multi-pollutant standards
for light- and medium-duty vehicles.
- The Senate Finance Committee submitted questions on December 22 to a number
of major automakers concerning whether their supply chains are
using any parts or materials made with forced labor in
China's Xinjiang region.
- UBS analysts predict automakers' revenue from assisted driving and connectivity technologies could reach a $700 billion total addressable market by 2030. This is revised from a previous UBS market forecast of $2 trillion by 2030 due to the later arrival of fully autonomous vehicles. UBS described software as "the next big disruptive technology" for the automotive industry. [Full report not publicly available]
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