For years, Artificial Intelligence (AI) was the stuff of science fiction. Recently, the surge in available computing power and data, coupled with publicly accessible LLM chatbots, turned fiction into reality. Almost overnight, everyone was talking about AI. Billions of dollars are pouring into its development, heralding a transformative era. To some, AI echoes the dot com bubble and its eventual burst.
Surely, AI hype is escalating. Predictions and warnings abound. AI can cure disease. AI can replace humans in fields ranging from entertainment to computer programming to (gasp) law. Some are pushing back against the hype - urging restraint and responsible development of this new technology. They are right to do so. AI is a sea change in our technology and should be approached responsibly. It is important to avoid falling for hype.
It is equally important not to buy into anti-hype. Detractors dismiss AI as overhyped, even worthless, not justifying the billions invested. Some would have us believe that AI is nonsense - smoke and mirrors that is not worth the billions being invested. Take James Ferguson, founding partner of the UK-based macroeconomic research firm MacroStrategy Partnership, who denounces AI as "effectively useless" and warns of a bursting bubble.
This exaggerated skepticism misses the mark and overlooks the bigger picture. Ferguson and others disregard the lessons of past technology breakthroughs. Obstacles appear, and those obstacles are conquered. For example, he notes that AI may end up being too "energy hungry" to be a cost-effective tool for many businesses. Ferguson also laments the increasing cost of Nvidia chips but overlooks the emergence of competing hardware technologies. Yes, model training and massively multi-user LLMs consume large amounts of energy and Nvidia GPU cards cost more than most computers. However, advancements in processors are making low-power embedded AI processing units available in everyday devices like computers, phones, and tablets.
This anti-hype also misses that the dot com bubble wasn't just about investing. Not all bubbles are Tulip Mania. The dot com bubble was the reaction of investors to a fundamental change in computing technology - the internet. The dot com bubble burst, but ultimately left behind a changed world with e-commerce, instantaneous world-wide communication, and countless other innovations. Let's not forget that some of the "pie in the sky" dreams that fueled the dot com bubble actually came to be, and some things emerged that no one saw coming, like social media.
The current AI surge is driven by innovations that have the potential to alter computing as fundamentally and enduringly as the internet did. While AI might face a comparable "burst," it won't mean the end of the technology altogether. Instead, we'll see a new computing landscape emerge that includes AI.
The financial bubble may burst and the hype may fade, but AI in one form or another is here to stay. Like the internet before it, AI has the power to shape our future in ways we can only begin to imagine. Let's not dismiss the hype around AI just yet. I, for one, will embrace its potential and be a part of the change.
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