Edition 14: covering significant news items arising during July 1, to July 31, 2024.
HEADLINES FROM JULY 2024
During July 2024, the following significant news items arose globally and seem to us to be the most note-worthy in the context of progress towards net-zero:
- Sunday July 21, 2024, and Monday July 22, 2024 - the hottest of days: During the week beginning July 22, 2024, there was considerable reporting on the fact that Sunday July 21, 2024, at 17.09O Celsius or 62.76O Fahrenheit, and Monday July 22, 2024, at 17.15O Celsius or 62.87O Fahrenheit, were the two hottest days by the average surface temperature around the globe since measurements began in 1940. For the source information, pulse.climate.coperinus.eu.) While P2N0 does not cover climate change generally, this news seems worthy of particular note.
- bp Energy Outlook 2024: During July
2024, the good folk at bp published the flagship bp Energy Outlook 2024 edition. This is one of
the publications that is awaited eagerly, providing a targeted
assessment of themes and trends.
Consistent with other flagship reports (awaited eagerly), the bp publication states that if current trends continue, we are going to exceed a 2OC increase in global average temperatures by 2040, and as such not achieve the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
Key to this assessment is that the mass of CO2 emissions continues to increase, rather than to peak. There is an increased focus on energy security and energy efficiency, and an increased role is being assumed by governments. There are many gems in the bp publication, and it is well-worth a read and a re-read.
- Long Term Road Maps: During July
2024, the International Energy Agency
(IEA) published:
- Electricity Mid-Year Update, which provides a
progress check on the development and deployment of electrical
energy capacity. As reported, during 2024, it is expected that
photovoltaic (PV) solar and wind renewable energy
capacity will exceed that of hydroelectric power.
The publication is best read with the IEA's World Energy Investment report, one of flagship reports from the IEA each year. The key theme from the report is that PV solar may be regarded as the leading technology used to deploy renewable electrical energy (and electrical energy as a whole), and that this will continue to be the case. It is estimated that over USD 500 billion will be invested in PV solar during 2024.
In addition to the deployment of PV solar at utility scale, households and commercial and industrial businesses are deploying roof-top PV solar and investing in energy efficiency. The report estimates that in 2024, over USD 3 trillion will be invested across the energy sector, with USD 2 trillion of that investment being in respect of clean or cleaner technologies. The report is well-worth a read1.
- Global EV Outlook 2024, which provides a
stock-take of the state of the development of the market for
electrical vehicles globally. As usual, the publication provides
insightful commentary on the state of the market, and the
anticipated development of it.
- Developing Capacity for Long-Term Energy Policy
Planning: A Roadmap, which provides a basis to consider
policy setting over the long term. The publication provides a
valuable roadmap for the consideration of how to develop policy and
is well-worth a read for those involved in this area.
- Electricity Mid-Year Update, which provides a
progress check on the development and deployment of electrical
energy capacity. As reported, during 2024, it is expected that
photovoltaic (PV) solar and wind renewable energy
capacity will exceed that of hydroelectric power.
- Energy Transition: During July
2024 the International Renewable Energy Agency
(IRENA) published:
- Geopolitics of the Energy Transition, Energy
Security. The publication helps order thinking around the
dynamics at large, and defining, the energy transition. As the
title of the publication suggests, Energy Security now runs through
policy settings around the world and will continue to do so as
countries seek to ensure affordable energy over the near, medium,
and long term.
This publication is worth reading with the IEA publication, Developing Capacity for Long-Term Energy Policy Planning, and the IRENA publication International Cooperation to Accelerate Green Hydrogen Deployment.
- Green hydrogen strategy – A guide to design, continuing
the theme of the month from the IEA and
IRENA, from the what needs to be done, to the how
that needs to be done can be done. The publication provides a
stock-take of the green hydrogen production targets of countries
with hydrogen roadmaps and strategies. (In this context, there is
alignment on the assessment of the EU member states, and the
assessment in EU Court of Auditors report.)
This publication provides a clear sense of where production of green hydrogen is at, and why it is not more advanced. For those actively working in the sector, this is confirmatory. The publication is excellent to orientate those seeking to understand the entirety of the policy setting regimes globally.
- Geopolitics of the Energy Transition, Energy
Security. The publication helps order thinking around the
dynamics at large, and defining, the energy transition. As the
title of the publication suggests, Energy Security now runs through
policy settings around the world and will continue to do so as
countries seek to ensure affordable energy over the near, medium,
and long term.
Progress for Fortescue in Morocco: On July 24, 2024, it was announced that the Morocco Competition Council (MCC) had approved the establishment of a joint venture between Fortescue and OCP Group. This is as substantive step in progress to the plans of Fortescue and OCP Group to develop a green hydrogen and green ammonia hub, which was announced in April 2024.
Geothermal in Africa: An ever-increasing theme across Africa, is the development of geothermal power. As a helpful summary of the state of play, during July the following presentation was given by Shadrack Phetia. It is very helpful.
Indian Steel: During July 2024, the Indian Steel Association working with Deloitte published Economical, greener, and always faster steel: Shaping the Future, which provides a State-by-State assessment of iron and steel production in India, and the potential for the decarbonization of the production of iron and steel production. The publication provides a helpful summary of the state of play and possible progress.
Also, during July, the Government of India (Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation) has published EnviStats India 2024. For those interested or working on policy settings or projects and transactions in India, the publication is fact and stat rich.
Footnote
1. In addition, it is worth recalling that the IEA reported on progress towards the achievement of the pledge (given at COP-28) to triple installed renewable electrical energy by 2030 COP-28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries' ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap. Stated in absolute numbers, an additional 11,000 GW (or 11 TW) of renewable electrical energy capacity needs to be installed and deployed from the end of 2023 to 2030 to achieve the pledge. The report provides a country-by-country analysis to assess progress so far, considering the best-case scenario based on current policy settings and commitments, concluding that if all of them are achieved, about 7,500 GW of renewable electrical capacity will be installed and deployed by 2030. The report is well-worth a read. Also, the IEA has published recently its Energy Efficiency Policy Toolkit 2024. For those active or interested in this area, the publication is well-worth a read.
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