With all precincts accounted for, the race for governor of
Minnesota is too close to call: Mark Dayton holds a narrow lead of
approximately 9,000 votes over Tom Emmer out of 2,099,796 votes
cast in yesterday's election. Given the vote margin and absent
a concession by Emmer, state law requires a recount, reprising the
recount battle of two years ago in the race for U.S. Senate between
Al Franken and Norm Coleman. Third-party challenger Tom Horner
garnered support from approximately 12 percent of those who voted
for governor. Emmer's current second-place finish is a stark
contrast to the otherwise dramatic showing of his Republican
colleagues in the Minnesota legislature.
The vote tallies followed a fairly predictable pattern for
Minnesota, with Dayton winning handlily in the urban counties of
Hennepin and Ramsey and on the Iron Range. Tom Emmer won all of the
suburban and most of the central, western and southern rural
counties. The difference in the election (aside from that of Tom
Horner's involvement in it) may well be Olmsted County. In
2006, Governor Tim Pawlenty carried the county over his Democrat
challenger by nearly 16%; this time, Emmer's margin over Mark
Dayton was half that, approximately 8 percent.
The mandatory recount will not commence for a few days while all
the results around the state are verified. Thankfully (or not)
Minnesota has vast experience in managing recounts, having only
just concluded a hotly-contested recount for the U.S. Senate seat
won by Al Franken. (That recount stretched over about five
months with multiple challenges that went to the Minnesota Supreme
Court). There is no reason to assume that this recount process
won't follow the same path as did the Franken-Coleman recount
battle, though the disputed votes in that election challenge
ultimately involved less than 1,000 ballots, well below the margin
in the Dayton-Emmer race.
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