Carbon Capture And Sequestration—"Essential," But Too Little, Too Late?

I. INTRODUCTION

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the California Air Resources Board (CARB) are now reiterating what climate research has demonstrated for decades: Greenhouse gas emissions are not falling fast enough to prevent catastrophic climate impacts. Despite ambitious and increasing emission reduction targets and pledges globally, the world is far off track from meeting the objectives of the Paris Agreement (i.e., limiting global temperature increase to no more than 2.0°C and, ideally, 1.5°C).¹ Accordingly, climate authorities worldwide assert that carbon dioxide remove (CDR) strategies must be part of the global effort.

This article presents and examines the following issues:

1. the widely accepted contention that CDR is now "essential;"
2. whether the world is already "too late" to effectively deploy CDR strategies according to timelines set forth by Paris;
3. if the scaling of operating CDR technologies necessary by mid-century to avert irreversible climate impacts is possible² ;
4. the existing regulatory, economic, and political barriers and incentives to broad scale CDR viability and deployment; and
5. recommendations to accomplish an unprecedented ramp-up of CDR technologies to facilitate them serving their newly proclaimed essential role in meeting Paris objectives.

Deploying CDR technologies at the scope and scale necessary to meet the carbon reduction targets of the Paris Agreement is likely impossible. Yet, even without meeting Paris' timeline, CDR technologies constitute an essential component of ongoing carbon reduction because of the continued magnitude of both ongoing global emission levels as well as legacy emissions already in the atmosphere.³ Without meaningful CDR operating to reduce CO2 emissions, climate research indicates catastrophic tipping points may be in store for human civilization.⁴

Many of the examples, analyses, and regulatory structures highlighted in this article come from California. The state has been among the most aggressive jurisdictions in the world in setting climate and emission reduction targets. California has held itself to exacting monitoring and reporting regimes. Still, recent inventories show California, like most U.S. jurisdictions, is far from being on track to hit its aggressive targets.⁵ The state's regulatory blueprint to accomplish economy-wide carbon reduction targets recently underwent a public and contentious comprehensive update and adoption by CARB.⁶ California Governor Gavin Newsom recently proposed and pressed through the legislature arguably the most aggressive statutory package of climate laws proposed in the U.S. While California illustrates many issues raised in this article, the dynamics, barriers, incentives, and proposed policy solutions are offered for universal application.

The second section of this article examines the contention that CDR is essential to meeting Paris' carbon reduction objectives and suggestions that the world may already be "too late" to deploy CDR technologies at a scope and scale sufficient to meet the goal.⁷

The third section defines CDR in its various iterations – natural and mechanical – focusing on three specific CDR approaches: carbon capture and sequestration (CCS); carbon capture, utilization, and sequestration (CCUS); and direct air capture (DAC). It will also address the metric of "carbon neutrality" where the amount of CDR required is measured relative to the imbalance between new emissions and carbon absorption through natural processes, the incorporation of CDR being necessary to remove emissions in excess of natural absorption to bring the total to at least "net zero," or zero new emissions added.⁸

The fourth section looks at the economics of CDR. More specifically, assessing the economic viability of CDR through government subsidy⁹ or utilization of CDR for expanded fossil fuel production and profit,¹⁰ a highly contentious and even politically fatal proposition that can doom CDR projects. As discussed later in this article, the Petra Nova CDR "success story" underscores the challenges of making CDR economically viable in the short-term.

The fifth section examines regulatory permitting required for any CDR project and how that process likely inhibits if not precludes timely establishment of CDR operations.

The sixth and final section offers recommendations to attempt to confront the contention and likely resignation that we are, in fact, too late to deploy CDR at the scale and on timeframes necessary to accomplish Paris carbon-reduction objectives. However, it is imperative to recognize that "too late" with regard to Paris does not mean the world can now abandon the deployment of CDR at the scale to which it is now recognized as essential to avoid catastrophic tipping points.

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Footnotes

1. Simon Evans, Direct CO2 capture machines could use 'a Quarter of Global Energy' in 2100, CARBONBRIEF (Jul. 22, 2019, 10:00 AM), https://www.carbonbrief.org/direct-co2-capture-machines-could-usequarter-global-energy-in-2100/ ("The 2015 Paris Agreement set a goal of limiting human-caused warming to 'well below' 2C and an ambition of staying below 1.5C. Meeting this ambition will require the use of 'negative emissions technologies to remove excess CO2 from the atmosphere, according to the (IPCC)."). See Corbin Hiar, Exxon CEO says carbon removal is climate cure with oil perks, CLIMATEWIRE (Jun. 28, 2022, 6:48 AM), https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2022/06/28/exxon-ceo-says-carbon-removal-can-save-oil-industry-00042607.

2. GLOB. CCS INST., GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS 2021 – CCS ACCELERATING TO NET ZERO 2, 4 (2022) https://www.globalccsinstitute.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/01/Global-Status-of-CCS-2021-Global-CCSInstitute-1121-1-1.pdf ("[T]here remains a massive gap between today's CCS fleet and what is required to reduce global anthropogenic emissions to net zero. Limiting global warming to 2°C requires installed CCS capacity to increase from around 40Mtpa today to over 5,600 Mtpa by 2050. Between USD$655 billion and USD$1,280 billion in capital investment is needed by 2050.").

3. Id. at 2.

4. Id. at 2.

5. Nadia Lopez, Slashing greenhouse gases: California revises climate change strategy, CALMATTERS (Nov. 16, 2022), https://calmatters.org/environment/2022/11/california-revises-climate-change-plan/.

6. CAL. AIR RESOURCES BD., 2022 SCOPING PLAN FOR ACHIEVING CARBON NEUTRALITY (2022), https://ww2.arb.ca.gov/sites/default/files/2022-12/2022-sp.pdf.

7. GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS 2021 – CCS ACCELERATING TO NET ZERO,supra note 2, at 2. "Large infrastructure projects like CCS facilities or pipeline networks usually take seven to 10 years from concept study through feasibility to design, construction then operation. There is no time to waste." Id. at 12.

8. "The amount of carbon removal that will be required depends on how quickly companies and governments can slash emissions from oil and gas and other sources." Hiar, supra note 1.

9. GLOBAL STATUS OF CCS 2021 – CCS ACCELERATING TO NET ZERO, supra note 2, at 12. "Creating an enabling environment for investment in CCS facilities and other net zero aligned assets – particularly in supporting infrastructure – through both policy and funding, should be a high priority for governments between now and 2030." Id. "The global CCS industry must grow by more than a factor of 100 by the year 2050, to achieve Paris Agreement climate targets." Id. at 11.

10. Tony Briscoe, California hopes to fight global warming by pumping CO2 underground. Some call it a ruse, L.A. TIMES (July 25, 2022), https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2022-07-25/is-carbon-captureand-storage-a-cover-for-oil-production; see 2022 SCOPING PLAN FOR ACHIEVING CARBON NEUTRALITY, supra note 6. "As is the case with CCS, mechanical CDR technologies will need government or other incentive support to get over technology and market barriers." Id. at 93.

Originally published by Foundation of the Energy Law Journal.

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