GLP-1 Drugs: Catalysts For A Healthier Lifestyle And A Revolution In Consumer Spending

As increased usage of Glucagon-like peptide medications, or "GLP-1s," sweeps the country and reshapes consumer behavior, a noticeable shift toward healthier choices continues to permeate the market, presenting both challenges and opportunities for Consumer Goods Manufacturers and Retailers.

To succeed in an evolving market where health is a growing priority for consumers, businesses can proactively: (1) identify the demographics of GLP-1 medication users, (2) analyze the perceived consumer benefits and ongoing influence of these medications on their purchasing decisions, and (3) strategically adapt their offerings and market approaches. This necessitates rethinking food categories and product portfolios, highlighting the critical role of adaptability to evolving consumer behavior and preferences for sustained relevance.

Demographic Patterns of GLP-1 Adoption and Consumer Product Impacts

A key to understanding GLP-1 usage lies in identifying demographic patterns such as age, income, gender, race, and health conditions, and how these patterns will impact shopping experiences and purchase decisions.

• Age: Highest usage of GLP-1 occurs among adults aged 50-64. Younger adults under 50 report lower usage overall, with 6–7% saying they have used GLP-1s primarily for weight loss rather than chronic conditions.¹
• Income: Higher-income households are more likely to use GLP-1 for weight loss due to its cost. Individuals with annual incomes of > $90K have higher levels of use compared to those earning <$50K.²
• Gender: Women are slightly more likely than men to use GLP-1 – about 51.5% vs 48.5%.³
• Race and Ethnicity: White non-Hispanic individuals have the highest adoption rates (62.6%) while Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations exhibit lower usage due to socioeconomic disparities, access issues, and overall need.⁴
• Health Conditions: GLP-1 use is most common among those diagnosed with diabetes (43%), heart disease (26%), or obesity (22%) within the last five years.⁵

Consumer Benefits of GLP-1 Medication Usage

The emergence of GLP-1s use among consumers has unveiled four significant benefits for consumers:

1. Improved Blood Sugar Control: GLP-1s have demonstrated benefits in improving blood sugar control, particularly for individuals managing type 2 diabetes. This offers a significant advantage in managing a chronic condition and improving long-term health, and when a consumer feels better and is able to manage what may normally be or become a chronic illness, their consumption patterns change – whether that be food choices, recreation and fitness decisions or the clothes they buy, a healthier shopper presents a different type of customer to retailers than one dealing with chronic health issues.
2. Enhanced Cardiovascular Health: GLP-1s have demonstrated significant benefits in reducing the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) such as heart attack, stroke, and cardiovascular death, particularly in individuals with type 2 diabetes and/or established cardiovascular disease or risk factors. Some GLP-1s are now approved to reduce these risks in individuals with obesity, even without diabetes. Feeling healthier and experiencing a reduced risk of heart-related issues can influence purchasing decisions towards fitness equipment, healthier food options, travel, and experiences that promote well-being, which may create a new demand for products and services aligning with an active lifestyle.
3. Weight-loss: The growing adoption of GLP-1 medications has brought notable benefits to many individuals, enabling significant and often sustained weight loss for individuals who stay on the medication. This is not just about shedding a few pounds; for some, GLP-1s have offered a powerful tool in managing obesity and achieving healthier body weights, which in turn can lead to a cascade of other positive health outcomes, an improved sense of well-being, and key for retailers – an evolution in what products they buy.⁶

Effects of GLP-1 Drugs on Grocery Spending

• Overall Spending Decline: Households with GLP-1 users reduce their spending by 6-11% within the first six months, with higher-income households experiencing larger declines.⁷
• Consumers Report Changes in Food Categories Purchased: Spending on calorie-dense and processed foods such as snacks, baked goods, soft drinks, and alcoholic beverages has declined (by as much as 52% in some categories). Conversely, spending on healthier items like lean proteins (+27%), fruits and vegetables (+13%), and meal replacements (+19%) is on the rise.⁸
• Long Term Trends: After one year of using GLP-1 medications, grocery spending tends to stabilize closer to pre-medication levels, with only a modest decrease in total spending; however, healthier food choices will persist.⁹

Effects of GLPs on Food Preferences

GLP-1s continue to influence food preferences by altering appetite, cravings, and taste perceptions. Consumers using these medications report:

• Reduced cravings for indulgent foods such as salty snacks, starchy foods, and in some instances, dairy products.¹⁰
• Healthier choices and preference for nutrient-dense foods like lean proteins, vegetables, and fruits contribute to healthier eating habits.
• Decreased "food noise" and the time required to think about food, leading to fewer meals, snacks, and smaller portion sizes.

Overall Impact on the Food and Beverage Industry

The reduced consumption of certain products, such as calorie-dense, high sugar products, snacks, sugary drinks, and alcohol, has been correlated with GLP1-s. For example, sugary drink consumption was reduced by 65% and alcohol consumption decreased by 62% following medication onset, contributing to declining revenues in these categories.¹¹

Increased demand for healthier options such as fruits and vegetables (55%), protein shakes, and meal replacements is also seeing growth as they align with the dietary needs of GLP-1 users.¹²

Impact on Grocery Spending and Declining Food Categories

According to research by Cornell University and Numerator^,13 households with at least one GLP-1 user will reduce spending by approximately 6% within six months of adoption, which equates to an average annual reduction in spending of $416 per household. Households with higher levels of income experience an even larger decline in spending by nearly 9% or $690 less annually.

GLP-1 usage will continue to influence consumer food demand and prompt food manufacturers and retailers to adapt by introducing products tailored to health-conscious consumers who focus on portion-controlled meals and nutrient-rich options.¹⁴

GLP-1 drug usage is expected to significantly decrease spending on grocery categories like savory snacks, sweet baked goods, cookies, and other snack foods, where consumption has already fallen by 6% to 11%.¹⁵

In Summary, Long-Term Changes in Grocery Spending After Starting GLP-1 Drugs

• Households experience an initial decline of approximately 6% within the first 6 months.
• Diminishing impact for weight loss users and reduction spend trails off after 6 months, but the shift in what they buy has evolved.
• Category Shifts and spending on frozen foods and center store beverages decline further over the first year, while spending on fresh produce and deli items increases slightly among weight loss users seeking healthier options.
• Reduced appetites may encourage diverse ways of shopping, including stimulating sales of ready-made meals delivery, meal kits tailored to single and/or small portions, and dietary supplements.

These trends continue to highlight a growing shift toward smaller grocery lists and healthier food choices, with the overall reduction stabilizing after the initial adjustment period. This means that food manufacturers and food retailers will need to adapt to a lasting shift in consumer preferences and behaviors.¹⁶ Companies that embrace these strategies will emerge better positioned to thrive in a market shaped by evolving consumer behaviors.

How Ankura Can Help

To stay competitive amidst shifting consumer preferences impacted by GLP-1 medications, several key strategies emerge. Critical adjustments by food manufacturers, food and consumable bricks-and-mortar retailers, as well as food direct-to-consumer companies, can help to maintain profitability in a reshaped food market. While not exhaustive, these are seven areas where our team can assist:

1. Market Basket Analysis: Analyze and identify changing customer product preference trends over time, such as product correlations, category shifts, national brand and private label shifts, product sizes, price bands, and price points.
2. Product Assortment Analysis: Define the implications for shelf assortments, assortment changes tailored to specific locations, SKU rationalization, and where retailers have "white space" for new product introductions.
3. E-commerce Customer Journey Mapping: Identify how purchasing habits change by platform used (e.g., mobile web, app, desktop) and how customers are choosing to interact, search, convert, and optimize the discovery-to-checkout journey. For repeat customers, mine data to deliver a loyalty-supported personalized experience.
4. CRM-Supported Customer Segmentation: Perform a deep analysis of customer purchase data to identify preference shifts early on so retailers can understand and react to changes in customer spending habits. Embrace the change through product recommendations, bundling of products, and engagement with customers in their health improvement journey.
5. Marketing Mix: Drive marketing channel optimization. Adjust spending by channel to be visible where high-intent customers may be while monitoring customer acquisition cost (CAC), customer lifetime Value (CLV), and return on ad spend (ROAS). Ensure the proper balance of acquisition marketing to retention marketing to ensure new customer acquisition and reduce the "leaky bucket" of existing customers.
6. Vendor Funding: Uncover shifts in customer purchasing habits that can impact national brand vendor funding and define where there are new opportunities to develop partnerships with vendors based on the customer purchase shifts.
7. Grocery Delivery: Optimize fulfillment routes to counteract potentially smaller basket sizes. Develop optimal fulfillment routes to keep costs down, test delivery price thresholds, and encourage "add to basket" items that align with the customer's healthier purchase history.

In conclusion, while changing consumer sentiment reflects a period of uncertainty and potential challenges for retailers, businesses can view the evolution as an opportunity to innovate and adapt. By understanding consumer preferences and drivers of choice, Ankura helps clients adjust strategies to improve revenue and margins accordingly. We help food manufacturers and retailers not just to weather the storm but to emerge stronger and more resilient in the face of future changes.

Footnotes

1. KFF.org, KFF Health Tracking Poll: The Public's Use and Views of GLP-1 Drugs, 5/10/2024

2. Ibid

3. ibid

4. ibid

5. ibid

6. The Cleveland Clinic, GLP-1 Agonists, https://my.clevelandclinic.org/health/treatments/13901-glp-1-agonists

7. Jeff Wells, GroceryDive, Pardon the Disruption: How GLP-1s could reshape the grocery store, Jan. 6, 2025

8. State of Digital Grocery Performance Scorecard: H1 2024, 7/16/24

9. ibid

10. Biospringer.com by Lesaffre, How is the rise of GLP-1 medications reshaping the food industry, 2/20/2025

11. Kim Fisher, https://foodandhealth.ucdavis.edu/, The impact of GLP-1 Drugs on the Food Industry I FoodTech 11 – Doon insights, 2/6/2025

12. ibid

13. Hristakeva, Sylvia and Liaukonyte, Jura and Feler, Leo, The No-Hunger Games: How GLP-1 Medication Adoption is Changing Consumer Food Demand (December 27, 2024). Cornell SC Johnson College of Business Research Paper, Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=5073929 or http://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.5073929

14. Christopher Doering, https://www.fooddive.com/news, GLP-1 drug cuts grocery spending by 6%, study finds, 1/2/2025

15. ibid

16. Ibid; Purdue University, GLP-1 Adoption, and its impact on food demand, 3/31/25

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