Here's a look at the leave application decisions that the Supreme Court of Canada will be releasing on March 24, 2022.
Each week, we'll be providing a short blog post that summarizes some of the upcoming cases and gives a prediction of the probability that leave will be granted. These predictions will be based on our proprietary machine learning model and dataset of every leave application decision released by the Supreme Court of Canada from January 1, 2018 onward.
Each week, we'll group cases into four categories:
- Cases to Watch – These are cases where our model predicts greater than a 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have a much better than average chance that leave will be granted. While this doesn't mean that all of them will get leave, they are worth watching as strong candidates.
- Possible Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 5% and 25% chance that leave will be granted. These cases have an average to somewhat above-average chance of getting leave. While most cases in this category won't get leave, on average, we expect to see a healthy minority of cases in this category being granted leave.
- Unlikely Contenders – These are cases where our model predicts between a 1% and 5% chance that the case will get leave. The safe bet is against leave being granted in these cases, but we do expect to see it from time to time.
- Long-Shots – These are cases where our model predicts a less than 1% chance that the case will get leave. Although it will happen from time to time, it would be an outlier for our model for these cases to be granted leave. We will not be providing summaries for these cases.
If this is your first time reading our weekly SCC leave predictions blog, have a look at an explanation and caveats about our model here.
THIS WEEK'S CASES
There are 28 leave application decisions coming out on March 24, 2022. Our model only predicts the probabilities of successful leave applications in cases where leave was sought from the Court of Appeal. We will not comment or provide a prediction on cases where leave was sought directly from a Superior Court decision or on cases in which we are involved. That leaves 27 cases in which we'll give a prediction.
You can find a detailed summary of all of the cases that are up for leave decisions this week here.
Cases to Watch
Attorney General of Canada v Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 49% chance of getting leave.
Possible Contenders
Her Majesty the Queen v Keith Boucher
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 18% chance of getting leave.
Teksavvy Solutions Inc v Bell Media Inc., et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 18% chance of getting leave.
Paul-Éric Béliveau c Sa Majesté la Reine
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 11% chance of getting leave.
Procureur général du Québec c Association canadienne des télécommunications sans fil
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 11% chance of getting leave.
Bell Canada, et al v Copyright Collective of Canada, et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has an 11% chance of getting leave.
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce v Her Majesty the Queen
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 10% chance of getting leave.
Phillip James Tallio v Her Majesty the Queen
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 9% chance of getting leave.
Restaurants Canada, et al c Ville de Montréal
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.
Sabrina Khan v Siddique Katiya in his Capacity as the Liquidator of the Estate of the Late Abdul Rauf Khan
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.
Unlikely Contenders
Mohammad Shakil Khan, et al v Her Majesty the Queen
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 5% chance of getting leave.
W.G. v Her Majesty the Queen
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.
1455257 Ontario Inc. v Her Majesty the Queen
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.
Yves Des Groseillers, et al c Agence du revenu du Québec
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 4% chance of getting leave.
Geox S.p.A. v Giuseppe De Luca
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
Ramzi Daniel v Ville de Mont-Saint-Hilaire, et al (39732)
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 3% chance of getting leave.
Ramzi Daniel v Ville de Mont-Saint-Hilaire, et al (39733)
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Joan Wakeling, et al v Desjardins General Insurance Group Inc, et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Patrick Ehouzou, et al c Compagnie d'Assurance-Vie Manufacturers, et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
D.W.M. v Her Majesty the Queen
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Samuel Cozak c Procureur général du Québec
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Buddy Vernon Cook, et al v Municipality of the District of St. Mary's, et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a 2% chance of getting leave.
Long-Shots
Centre for Health Science and Law (CHSL) v Attorney General of Canada
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Darren Vrbanek v David Zerbin, et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Theoktiti Dimakis by her litigation guardian, Konstantine Dimakis, et al v Cathleen Vitucci, et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Elahe Vahed v Remax Crossroads Realty Inc., et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
Yau Wah Steve Lam v Governors of the University of Calgary, et al
- Our Model's Prediction: This case has a less than 1% chance of getting leave.
UPDATE ON MARCH 24: WHAT HAPPENED THIS WEEK?
The Supreme Court granted leave to one case this week. An unlikely contender, Yves Des Groseillers, et al c Agence du revenu du Québec, was granted leave, despite having only a 4% chance based on our model. This case demonstrates that a low probability does not mean that there is no chance for a case to get leave; cases with a 4% probability should get leave 4% of the time. With respect to the other cases, none were granted leave, which is generally consistent with our model's predictions.
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