A recent report by the New South Wales Bureau of Crime Statistics and Research (BOCSAR) has the mainstream media asserting that criminal offences are being 'solved' at higher rates than ever before in New South Wales.
But while these sources laud the New South Wales Police Force for its hard work and success, it is important to bear in mind at least two things: (1) the term used in the report, which is 'clear up rates', refers to taking some form of legal action and not actually achieving a conviction or finding of guilt, and (2) there is a strong argument the increase in clear up rates is primarily attributable to technological advancements and increases in state surveillance, the intrusive monitoring of individuals and expanding police powers at the expense of civil liberties, rather than any additional efforts of, or improvements within, our state's police force.
BOSCAR Report Statistics
According to BOCSAR's report released on 23 April 2025, which is titled ' Police crime clear up rates reach historic high', the highest increase clear up rates was in the context of property offences.
It found that between the years 2009 and 2023, the increase in police taking legal action for specific property offences can be broken down as follows:
- Malicious damage (including intentionally or recklessly damage or destroy property) up from 12% to 26%,
- Break and enter non-dwelling up from 6% to 19%,
- Break and enter dwelling up from 8% to 13%,
- Motor vehicle theft up from 8% to 13%, and
- Steal from motor vehicles up from 2% to 5%.
Legal action taken by the police for other violent offences also increased during the same period:
- Non-domestic assaults up from 27% to 29%,
- Robbery up from 20% to 40%,
- Domestic violence-related assault up from 60% to 67%, and
- Sexual touching and other sexual offences up from 18% to 20%.
Executive Director of BOCSAR, Jackie Fitzgerald, suggested that 'increased policing' – which may encompass police presence, greater police powers and technological advancements – is the primary contributing factor to the rise in 'clear up rates' – meaning action being taken against alleged offenders.
The only offence with a decline in legal action rate was sexual assault, which dropped from 10% to 7%.
Another offence that did not show any significant change was the murder legal action rate. Out of the list of violent offences, the murder rate remaining the same is the only one to be concerned about — despite stable NSW crime rates, the murder rate is the highest it has been within the last ten years. In 2024 alone, there were 85 murder victims reported by NSW police, which was the highest in a calendar year within the previous decade. Out of the 85 victims, nearly 46% were domestic violence-related.
Prisoners in Australia: Data
According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics report released on 19 December 2024, the adult prison population rose 6% from 2023 by 2,474 prisoners. This increase in the imprisonment rate to 208 out of the 100,000 adult population, with 60% of prisoners having experienced prior imprisonment, has significant implications for the criminal justice system's capacity and its impact on society. Out of those imprisoned, Indigenous offenders increased by a massive 15%.
Out of the 6% increase in the total prison population, male offenders increased by 5.7% and female offenders increased to over 8%. The increase in the number of prisoners country-wide echoes the trends in every state, bar Victoria, where the number of prisoners decreased between 2023 and 2024. This decrease in Victoria raises questions about the effectiveness of crime prevention strategies in different regions.
Between June 2023 and June 2024, the most significant changes in the seriousness of offence included an 8% increase in acts intending to cause injury, an 8% increase in sexual assault and related offences, and a 10% increase in offences against justice.
As of 30 June 2024, the median age for all prisoners was 36.5 years. The most common countries of birth for prisoners were Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam.
The most common serious offences or charges during this time period included acts intending to cause injury, sexual assault and related offences, and illicit drug offences, all of which totalled 57% of those charged.
One of the most alarming statistics for prisoners in Australia during this time period was the dramatic increase in the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples who were incarcerated for serious offences. Data shows that the most considerable numerical changes based on offence included a 17% increase in acts intending to cause injury, a 23% increase for offences against justice, and a 14% increase in sexual assault and related offences.
Despite making up just a minimal part of the population, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples accounted for 36% of the total prison population, with over 75% having a prior prison sentence.
Within New South Wales specifically, the most considerable increase in those imprisoned for a serious charge is a 52% increase in prohibited and regulated weapons and explosives offences. The imprisonment rate also increased to 194 prisoners per 100,000 adult population, with male and female prisoners increasing by 5%.
Do More Arrests Lead to Less Crime?
Previous BOCSAR studies have shown that despite an increase in the number of arrests, and a higher number of those imprisoned in NSW and the country, this doesn't necessarily correlate to a crime reduction.
These studies found that increasing the police force can dissuade more people from committing specific crimes, but it doesn't necessarily do so through the apprehension of offenders. This finding provides a more comprehensive understanding of the relationship between police presence, crime rates, and the criminal justice system's effectiveness.
After increasing the police presence by 7.2% in 2002 and 2003, a study found that a 1% increase in police presence leads to a reduction in theft and car theft — but no other significant reductions in crimes. The increase in the police costs money, and an added workforce, wouldn't be worth the 17 thefts and four car thefts prevented per year.
Thus, this raises the question: Does an increase in police presence and resources for the police force lead to solving more crimes, or does it just put more people behind bars? This question underscores the need for a balanced approach to policing that considers both crime prevention and rehabilitation.
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