Vietnam: 電力部門における分配の自由化-ビジネス参入のチャンス?

Last Updated: 22 September 2015
Article by Oliver Massmann

1. 近年の電力・ガソリン・石炭配給の独占状態が解消することにより経済上で期待される好影響は何か?

「回答」ベトナム電力市場では、ベトナム電力(EVN)が電力送電、配給に関して独占状態であると知られており、ベトナムは未だにオングリッド独自の電力計画で生成される全ての電力をENVが購入するといった一人売り手形態の特徴があります。投資家はEVNと電力売買契約(PPA)の交渉をすることは非常に困難だと認識しています。一方でEVNはペトロベトナム社とヴィナコミン社に対し膨大な負債をし続けています。

国家独占状態を対象とする商品やサービスのリストの採用はEVNの電力独占状態に制限をすると予想されています。国家は多目的水力発電や原子力発電、送電の運営などと同様に巨大発電所の国家電力システムの事業運営をすることで独占状態を維持してきましたし、社会経済や国防、国家安全保障に関して非常に重要性を持っていました。石油やオイルの取引はもはや国家独占の対象となりません。

これは市場介入への国際協定やいくつかの国営企業の民営化計画に従い、政府にとってポジティブな動きでもあります。政府は2016年の初めに施行予定のベトナムの電力卸売市場への一歩を踏み出しました。電力市場に今後多くの投資家が参入すると予想されています。消費者は誰から電気を購入するかという選択肢が増えていくでしょうし、競争性が高く、公平な電力市場が徐々に形成され、結果として非常に魅力的な投資環境になっていくと期待されています。

2. 個人投資家、特に外国人投資家にとってどのように重要となるか?

「回答」競争性が高く、参入しやすい市場になることで、外国人投資家はこの分野への投資をより魅力的に感じるでしょう。もはや生成した電力をEVNに販売する必要がなくなり、他の配給会社へ売ることや、独自のシステムを介して配給、送電することが可能になります。

外国人投資家はまたEVNと電力価格の交渉をするといった障害から解消されます。近年のバンベト証券株式会社の調査によると、ベトナムの電力小売価格は2005年の781VND/kWh (3.5 US cents/ kWh)から2015年には1,622VND/kWh (7.3 US cents/ kWh)と、この10年間で約2倍に上昇しましたが、カンボジア、タイ、シンガポールなどAPECの他国に比べるとまだ低い状態です。これが投資家にとってこの分野に出資するのを躊躇う主な原因となっています。しかし、投資家の為の資本の回復と合理的な利益を確保することを目的とする電力事業計画によると、電力価格は2016年から値上げする予定です。従って、電力小売価格は2020年には8-9 US cents/ kWh値上げするとみられ、今後5年以内に18.4%まで上昇すると予想されています。電力価格は市場の需要、供給を反映し、外国人投資家は投資決定しやすくなると期待されています。

3. 経済の独占状態を減少させるためにベトナム政府に対してどのような助言があるか?

ベトナムは市場経済の地位を確立している途中段階です。この目的を実現するために、政府は市場への介入を制限し、公正な競争性を作り出し、独自に運営可能な市場にする必要があります。多くの国々では、公正な競争性は独占状態の可能性を制限することにより作り出されています。もし単に政府が市場状況に応じて価格変動だけを許可する場合は、独占状態がさらに続き、市場に影響を及ぼす可能性があります。また、価格規定や独占状態の減少と同様に、政府は民営化計画を促進させ、投資家たちの為に真の競争性の高い市場を作りだす必要があります。

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