My last blog looked at the science and scepticism behind climate change, a review which was prompted by a private equity client asking if the case was proven. They also asked what we, in the real estate world, would need to do to adapt to a changing climate.

In a climate as benign as that in the UK, we can expect to be spared the worst risks climate change will bring – not for us the "megadisaster" perhaps, but we have already begun to experience life-threatening heatwaves, floods and storms which will, consensus tells us, become more prevalent. We will have to adapt, as others have, by moving roads and railways inland, diverting rivers and abandoning farmland. We shall certainly have to do something with our buildings as well. In overall terms, we shall have to rethink our approaches to ensuring that the design, construction and occupation of buildings are more resilient; there is, thankfully, research being undertaken in this area.

Changing weather

The key factors we shall have to deal with in the UK in general terms are:

  • Warmer weather: on average; over a period of, say 50 years, we shall have a climate in London something like that of the south of France today. This might sound quite welcome but sadly our buildings, most of which will still be around then, are not designed for that climate.  Many of them will be unbearably hot in summer.
  • Wetter and drier weather: too much water and not enough of it. And, to cap it all, we shall have a lot more "high impact" weather, storms and heavy, persistent rainfall.

All of these factors will mean we shall need to design, build and occupy buildings differently.

Adaptation measures

Some of the means by which we shall need to adapt to climate change in the built environment to be more resilient:

  • Design: Thinking about comfort differently – approaches to cooling buildings passively will be developed.  Drainage systems will need to cope with sudden deluges, as well as the storage of water during more frequent droughts.
  • Construction: Everything from the suitability of foundations to the stability of buildings and their weather tightness will need to be rethought, as will delivery timescales during very hot weather.
  • Occupation: Making more efficient use of heating and cooling and changing patterns of use of buildings. Desire for passive cooling might shift locational preferences to those away from polluted city centres. Energy shortages/power outages may become more common.

Embedding these responses will take time but given the scale of the issue – most buildings still standing in 50 years' time already exist today – we need to be thinking about retrofitting options which will deal with climate change adaptation soon.  

I have recently advised clients, based upon modelling we have undertaken, that air-conditioning system replacements being planned now (for systems at the end of their working life or imminently obsolete because of F-Gas regulations) should be specified with climate change impacts in mind.

Buildings insurers are beginning to demand change in this area and lease terms will increasingly reflect the need to address climate change risks.  As my private equity client commented, once the money and the lawyers require change, change will occur.

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