For several days, or even weeks, I've been telling people I don't really care where the bottom of the oil price slide is (or even when it gets here), but that I'm far more concerned about when the inevitable price recovery takes effect. Do we see $65 oil in December of 2015, or July 2016, or even later. I said it with sincerity. I said it with conviction. I even had a logical basis for it.
But the truth is I lied.
As I sit here this morning, oil is precipitously close to sliding under $42 a barrel. Each day there are several new articles about when the price recovery will come and what it will look like. Depending on which expert is talking (and when) the recovery could be V-shaped, more U-shaped or, heaven forbid, bath tub shaped.
There is plenty of discussion about how this will be good for the industry in the long run. Operators will focus more on core operations; efficiencies lost or ignored during the boom will find re-birth.
To all of this discussion, as relevant and logical and even necessary as it is, this morning I say – Stop It!
I for one am tired. I'm tired of clicking refresh only to see the price has fallen even lower. I'm tired of hearing about layoffs, and am tired of having to tell people I don't know anyone hiring. I'm tired of reading about bankruptcies, and good people losing their jobs and pensions. I am tired of telling well-meaning friends and family that it will all be ok. I'm tired of hearing that the industry has been through this before and will be again.
I can't lie any more. I do care where the bottom is and when we get there.
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