United States: Florida Government and Politics Weekly Update (Week of September 13, 2010)

State Budget: State Economists Projects Smaller Budget Shortfall for 2011 – 2012 Fiscal Year

In their Long-Range Financial Outlook for fiscal years 2011 – 2012 through 2013 – 2014 released on September 7, 2010, the Florida Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research and the appropriations staffs of the Florida House and Senate project a state budget shortfall of $2.5 billion for the 2011 – 2012 fiscal year. As recently as one year ago, the official projected shortfall for 2011 – 2012 was $5.5 billion.

According to Amy Baker, Director of the Office of Economic and Demographic Research, "The revenue side is slightly better, and the spending has leveled off." She noted, however, that the forecast does not include any potential costs related to the Gulf of Mexico oil spill.

The new forecast reflects greater than anticipated tax receipts, positive results from tax amnesty legislation, revenue from the Seminole Indian Gaming Compact, and spending cuts. Increased revenues account for $1.3 billion, or 43 percent of the difference between the previous projection and the current projection. Reduced expenditures account for $1.7 billion or 57 percent of the difference.

For the 2011 – 2012 fiscal year, the total amount of general revenue available for appropriation by the Legislature will be $25.2 billion. General revenue expenditures would be $26.0 billion (for a shortfall of $828 million) if only "critical needs" are addressed, or $27.7 billion (for a shortfall of $2.5 billion) if "other high priority needs" are addressed. "Other high priority needs" are defined as issues that the Legislature has historically funded and are generally regarded as "musts" in normal budget years.

For fiscal year 2012 – 2013, the projected shortfall for critical and other high priority needs is $2.8 billion, and for the following fiscal year the projected shortfall is $1.9 billion.

State Constitution: Circuit Court Allows Class-Size Amendment to Remain on November Ballot

On September 10, 2010, Leon County Circuit Court Chief Judge Charles Francis issued a ruling that allowed the proposed amendment to the Florida Constitution to revise maximum class-size limits to remain on the November general election ballot. The Florida Education Association and others sought a declaratory judgment that the ballot statement and summary was misleading.

Amendment 8, as proposed by the Legislature, would allow existing class-size limits to be applied on the basis of average class size in each grade, rather than on a classroom-by-classroom basis. The limits, which the amendment does not change, are 18 per class in kindergarten through third grade, 22 per class in fourth through eighth grades, and 25 per class in ninth through 12^th grades.

The union argued that the ballot statement attempted to "hide the ball" from voters by failing to mention that the impact of the amendment would be to reduce expenditures on public education. In allowing the amendment to remain on the ballot, Judge Francis ruled that the main purpose and scope of the amendment was to revise application of the class-size requirements, not to reduce funding, that the ballot statement was not misleading, and that the amendment did not alter the Legislature's responsibility to fund schools or shift any funding burden from the state to local school boards.

The Florida Education Association announced that it plans to appeal.

Legislature: Republicans Select Jacksonville City Council Member to Succeed State Rep. Jennifer Carroll

Republican officials in Duval and Clay Counties have selected Jacksonville City Council member Daniel Davis to succeed state Rep. Jennifer Carroll in the House. Republican gubernatorial candidate Rick Scott designated Rep. Carroll as the Republican candidate for lieutenant governor after the August 24 primary election.

Rep. Carroll's designation as the lieutenant governor candidate created a vacancy in the Republican nomination for her 13^th House district seat, and the state Republican committee members from the two counties included in the district had the responsibility of designating a nominee. They unanimously chose Mr. Davis, who has been a member of the Jacksonville City Council since 2003.

Mr. Davis is unopposed and will take office immediately after the November 2 general election.

Marnie George of The George Group assists Foley on a variety of government and public policy matters as a consultant.

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