- Alistair Darling's third Budget will be hardly recognisable
as the last before a general election. With the UK's budget
deficit baring comparison with that of Greece, the markets and
credit rating agencies would severely punish any sort of
pre-election splurge. Neither would it go down well with an
electorate well aware that higher taxes and deep spending cuts
already lie ahead.
- At the same time, though, the Chancellor will point to the
fragility of the economic recovery in resisting calls from some
economists for a faster fiscal consolidation. Any modest proceeds
from lower unemployment and the bonus tax windfall are likely to be
largely spent rather than saved, hardening the election battle
lines between the Government and the Conservatives.
- Likely Budget measures might include some additional
expenditure on politically sensitive areas such as health,
education and defence. Measures to tackle youth unemployment and
cuts in corporation tax are also possible, perhaps partly financed
by higher duties on alcohol and tobacco.
- But all of this will simply be putting off the inevitable. The
lack of detailed spending plans beyond the current year and Mr
Darling's optimistic predictions for economic growth cast major
doubts on whether even the current plans to halve the budget
deficit over the next four years can be achieved.
- Meanwhile, with Greece and other countries announcing ever more
aggressive measures to tackle their own fiscal crises, and sterling
assets suffering from fiscal worries, the pressure for a
correspondingly faster reduction in the UK budget deficit will
continue to build.
- As such, much more decisive action to put the public finances
on a path back towards health will be needed after the election.
While the prospect of a hung parliament has increased the
uncertainty over the precise timing and size of such action, a very
substantial fiscal squeeze lies ahead under any form of
government.
- In the markets, the Budget is unlikely to do much to ease the near-term pressure on sterling asset markets. But if I am right in expecting worries about the fiscal outlook finally to start to ease later in the year, alongside fading inflation concerns and still exceptionally loose monetary policy, both gilts and the sterling exchange rate should eventually begin to fare better.
Download Roger Bootle's full Budget 2010 preview (http://www.deloitte.com/assets/Dcom-UnitedKingdom/Local%20Assets/Documents/Services/Tax/UK_Tax_BootleBudget2010PreviewReport.pdf).
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