With the latest Deloitte TMT Predictions anticipating 1bn smartphone upgrades in 2015, and 1.15bn in 2016, what is causing the increasing number of users to upgrade their devices?

My first mobile phone was a Nokia 3210i. With 160 million units sold, this was one of the first phones to feature an internal antenna, allowed picture messaging, create custom ringtones, and of course, it had Snake, one of the most loved mobile phone games of all time. It was, in short, incredible, a work of art. As a young teenager, I vividly remember thinking to myself, whatever next? How could they improve on this?!

As the years have passed, the rate of innovation has increased multi-fold, with the latest range of smartphones displaying features previously thought imaginable. The Apollo Guidance Computer weighed roughly 31kg, had a processor speed of 1MHz, memory of roughly 4kB and cost nearly $150,000; in sharp contrast, the Apple iPhone 5s weighs 0.1kg, with a processor speed of 1.3GHz, 64GB memory and cost a mere $399.

Innovation hasn't stopped there, with larger screens fingerprint sensors, NFC-based payments (and marginally better battery life), people are upgrading more regularly, with the strong emergence of the '2 year upgrade cycle'. But why are we so obsessed by devices that, a mere 42 years ago, did not exist?

When my parents first gave me a mobile phone, it was about always being reachable, making sure I could contact them if there were problems getting home. My mobile phone was a means to an end of staying safe. Now, we live in a different world. Phones are much more than devices which simply allow us to dial and speak to others. Mobile phones are our one stop shop for everything, books, music, photos, email, games and news; our phones, are truly smart.

As a result of these innovations, mobile phones have also become a fashion accessary. Having the latest iPhone or Samsung device is just like being a fan of a sports team; it gives you the feeling of being part of something greater, part of a religious cult of sorts. While a recent video of the first person to buy an iPhone 6 in Australia opening a brand new iPhone (with dramatic circumstances) has gained notoriety, with over 20.5mn views to-date, it is symptomatic of the cultural importance given to being part of an exclusive club, in which new phone releases are met with extraordinary levels of hype, as people clamour to be one of the first to own a new device.

And, therein lies the other factor. People. Especially in young adults and teenagers, there is both marketing and peer pressure, to continually update devices to keep up with trends. Phone announcements make your handset feel like "a rust bucket waiting for its turn under the crusher", with pincer effect of enticing marketing campaigns, and tech-savvy peers, meaning that people are more likely to splurge their hard earned cash on a new device at the earliest opportunity.

It is a culmination of these factors which leads increasing numbers of users upgrading devices, with the latest Deloitte TMT predictions suggesting that 24% of adults plan to upgrade their smartphone, as we anticipate 1bn upgrades in 2015, and 1.15bn in 2016.

Times change, and now we live in an era where it feels almost unnatural to be more than a few metres from your mobile phone. Running out of battery is akin to your worst nightmare, and people look forward to their upgrade date as much as they look forward to their next birthday.

Welcome to the world of today. Only six months to go...

Related links
TMT Predictions 2015 - One billion smartphone upgrades  

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