Indonesia: Indonesia In One Belt One Road (Chinese)

Last Updated: 30 July 2019
Article by TMF Group

"一带一路"下的印度尼西亚:互联网巨头BATJ相继涌入,"千岛之国"的投资环境真那么好?

稳定的政局、丰富的自然资源、利好的经济增长前景、优越的地理位置、廉价的劳动力以及较高的市场化程度,无疑提升了印尼在中国投资者眼中的魅力。如果包括中企经新加坡等第三国流向印尼的投资,中国已是印尼第一大投资来源国。

中国投资者领跑"千岛之国"外商投资。

据印尼投资协调委员会(BKPM)公布的数据显示,2018年中国内地和香港共对印尼投资43.9亿美元,占印尼国外投资的15%,位列印尼外资来源国第三位。如果包括中企经新加坡等第三国流向印尼的投资,中国已是印尼第一大投资来源国。而在四年前(2014年),中国对印尼的投资只有8亿美元,位列印尼外资来源国第八位。

"一带一路"倡议的提出加速了中资出海印尼的进程。从那时起,国内互联网巨头BATJ(百度、阿里、腾讯、京东)就开始抢滩这个拥有2.6亿人口的大市场。

BATJ相继涌入,京东成当地第五只独角兽

2015年11月,百度率先与印尼风投公司Convergence Ventures达成合作,以通过后者来投资印尼科技创企。

2017年,蚂蚁金服与印尼第二大媒体和互联网集团Emtek达成合作,后者旗下拥有印尼2018年新晋独角兽企业——电商平台Bukalapak。

随后,在2017年8月,阿里巴巴领投11亿美元入股印尼当地最大的电商平台"印尼版淘宝"Tokopedia,由此,阿里巴巴几乎垄断了印尼的电商市场。

紧跟着阿里的脚步,2017年,腾讯向印尼网约车软件Go-Jek投资1.5亿美元。Go-Jek是印尼及东南亚共享经济的领头羊,其摩的服务平台Go-Ride是印尼最大的移动出行平台之一。IT桔子数据显示,2019年2月,Go-Jek完成由腾讯、京东、谷歌领投的约10亿美元F轮融资,前者估值达到近100亿美元。

BATJ中,京东不仅投资了Go-Jek,其还在2017年7月参与了印尼在线旅游平台Traveloka的3.5亿美元融资,同时参投的还有高瓴资本。

至此,BATJ已进入印尼仅有的四家独角兽企业:Go-Jek、Traveloka、Tokopedia和Bukalapak。同时,京东自身也几乎成为印尼的第五只独角兽:今年1月,外媒消息称Go-Jek将向JD.ID(京东印尼站)注资数亿美元,注资完成之后,JD.ID的估值或将超过10亿美金,成为印尼的第五家独角兽公司。

巨头混战的印尼,魅力究竟在何处?

"21世纪海上丝绸之路"首倡之地,中产阶层占比过半

有"千岛之国"之称的印尼位于东南亚中心地带,由17500多个岛屿组成,是世界上最大的群岛国家。印尼人口2.6亿,居世界第四位,占东盟6.5亿人口的五分之二,平均年龄29岁,而20-65岁人口占比超过60%。印尼是东盟创立国之一,也是东南亚最大经济体及20国集团成员。

印尼是"21世纪海上丝绸之路"首倡之地。2013年10月,中国国家领导人在印尼提出共建"21世纪海上丝绸之路"重大倡议,并将两国关系提升至全面战略伙伴关系。

世界经济论坛的《2018年全球竞争力报告》显示,印尼在全球最具竞争力的140个国家和地区中,排第45位,在东南亚地区排名第三,仅次于马来西亚和泰国。世界银行《2018营商环境报告》显示,印尼在全球190个经济体中,营商便利度排名第72位,较上年提升19位。中国对外承包工程商会发布的《"一带一路"国家基础设施发展指数(2018)》中显示,印度尼西亚连续两年排名榜首,其发展环境、发展潜力和发展趋势指数均排名前列。

印尼经济的成功很大一部分有赖于其不断壮大的中产阶级和经济的稳定增长。数据显示,2018年印尼中产阶级接近9000万,占人口总数的34%,每年有700万人加入中产阶级大军,预计到2020年,印尼的中产阶级将增加到1.41亿,人口占比过半,推动消费支出每年以两位数的速度增长。同时,在2007年至2016年的十年间,印尼GDP年均增长6%,在东盟十国中表现最优。

2013-2017年印尼经济增长情况

年份 经济增长率(%) 人均GDP(美元)
2013 5.78% 3499
2014 5.02% 3531
2015 4.80% 3377
2016 5.02% 3605
2017 5.07% 3877

*资料来源:印尼中央统计局

近年来,印尼的债务占GDP的比例一直稳步降低。2001年,此比例高达83%,而到2013年年底,已降至不足26%,在东盟国家中位列第二,仅次于没有政府债务的新加坡。信用评级机构也对印尼的投资环境给予了肯定,标准普尔将印尼长期主权信用评级进行了上调。这是自全球金融危机以来,印尼首次被三大全球评级机构同时评为投资级信用。这反映了印尼在抵御全球金融危机,改进国内治理和外部信用指标,以及应对改革带来的挑战等方面有较强的能力。

另外,据谷歌联合淡马锡在去年11月发布的《2018东南亚互联网经济报告》,去年东南亚地区的互联网经济(包括电商、网约车、网络媒体和在线旅游)达到了720亿美元市场规模,其中电子商务市场规模达到230亿美元,而印尼是东南亚最大的互联网经济和电子商务市场,市场规模分别为270亿美元、122亿美元。预计到2025年,印尼电子商务市场规模将达到530亿美元,占东南亚电子商务市场的近一半。

*来源:谷歌、淡马锡《e-Conomy SEA 2018》

总的来说,印尼的投资魅力主要在于:政局总体稳定,政府重视扩大投资;自然资源丰富;经济增长前景看好,市场潜力大;地理位置重要,控制着关键的国际海洋交通线;人口众多,有丰富、廉价的劳动力;市场化程度较高,金融市场较为开放。

但是投资印尼的风险也不容忽视。

多变的政策和多样的文化

TMF Group近期发布的2019年《 全球商业复杂性指数》报告显示,印尼的商业环境复杂指数排名全球第二,仅次于希腊。TMF Group 印尼办事处专家Alvin Christian表示:"因为印尼立法变化频率极高,且可能相互矛盾。"

对网上销售征收增值税就是一个例子。2018年,印尼政府宣布实施新政策,2019年就取消了这项政策。虽然印尼正在逐步加速现代化,但现有法律基础有时无法跟上变化的步伐。

另外,印尼还有复杂的公司注册的和监管程序。在印尼注册公司需要通过一站式提交(OSS) 系统,这一系统已经启用但仍处于发展阶段,使得原本已很复杂的程序变得更加复杂。

公司在印尼注册成立后,所面临的申报要求也极其严格。不同的监管部门有不同的规定和标准,有时会存在巨大差异。例如,公司必须向印尼财政部、金融服务监管局和中央银行申报。不同监管部门对申报格式和时间期限等的要求各不相同,导致程序相当复杂。比如,税务机关原则上必须接受数字化签名,但实际上又常常要求"手写签名"。

印尼的税收体制比较复杂,企业的税赋成本比较高。印尼国会通过新的《所得税法》调低了企业所得税和个人所得税税率。印尼税法对于中小微型企业有税收优惠,还有其他产业税收优惠措施等。赴印尼的中国投资者应当认真研究相关法律规定,充分利用当地的优惠政策,降低税赋成本。

除了政策层面的风险,如何应对印尼文化和种族的多样性,也是中国投资者需要考量的问题。作为全球最大的穆斯林国家,中资企业必须尊重当地的宗教信仰和习俗,比如在每年的穆斯林斋月期间,雇主需要调整工作时间并根据政府要求向雇员发放与宗教节庆相关的奖金(religious holy day bonus)。

中资出海的试金石

复杂的政策、法律及文化环境要求中资企业在赴印尼投资时需要聘请专业可靠的服务机构。TMF Group作为领先的全球高价值商业服务提供商和国际拓展专家,在全球80多个司法管辖区有7800多名本地专家为中国企业海外拓展提供支持。凭借独特的目的国交付模式,TMF Group能够在全球多个司法管辖区提供信托、 企业秘书 人力资源和薪酬管理以及 会计管理和企业税务管理等全面的服务。如果中国企业在印尼全面展开业务,客户只需与TMF Group一家合作伙伴联络,大幅降低沟通和管理成本。若您对中国企业海外运营方面有任何疑问,也欢迎 与TMF Group联系

把控住风险,"千岛之国"巨大的市场将成为中资企业出海最好的试金石。

参考资料:

商务部,《印度尼西亚投资指南2018》

德勤,《Investment Window into Indonesia (IWI)》

谷歌、淡马锡,《e-Conomy SEA 2018》

TMF Group,《全球商业复杂性指数2019》

中国-印尼经贸合作网,《2018年印尼投资情况概述》

第一财经,《2.66亿人撑起万亿商机:中企印尼"试金"》

极客公园《京东,印尼的第五只独角兽》

Transparency International,《2018 Corruption Perceptions Index》

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