Vietnam: ドナルド・トランプ氏への手紙 環太平洋経済連携協定 – 絶好のチャンス

Last Updated: 23 February 2017
Article by Oliver Massmann

米国トランプ大統領

環太平洋経済連携協定(TPP)から離脱するという就任初日に出した声明に関して、TPP批准の可能性を再考して頂きたくお願い申し上げます。

TPPから離脱するということは即ち、米国は他のTPP諸国の政府調達へのアクセスを失うことになり、その額は1兆4,920億米ドルに上ります。TPPのように高い基準の政府調達規制は既存の国際協定にはどこにも見当たりません。その上、米国がTPPと同等の高い政府調達基準で二国間協定を締結するには、さらに10年を要する可能性があります。新たに交渉をする代わりにこのTPPを批准することで、米国は時間、労力そしてもちろん何十億米ドルを節約することができる為、非常に重要になるはずです。

以下の事実が今後の決断に役立ち、TPPがどのように米国を再び偉大な国にするのに役立つか明確に示してくれると我々は確信しています。興味をお持ちだと思うことは、米国が利益を得ることができるTPP加盟国の政府調達額が非常に高い点でしょう。

既にご存知のように、TPP諸国の人口は2015年7月時点で4億9,400万人を超えています。TPP諸国は2014年に米国の総輸出額の44.8%、また一般輸入額の37.6%を占めています。TPPに関する18,000品目以上の関税を削減することで、新しい市場に参入することが可能になれば米国の輸出入業者にとって大きなメリットになるでしょう。

米国の国際貿易委員会が推定したように、TPPにより米国の商品・サービスの世界への輸出は2032年までに272億米ドル増加し、米国の輸入は489億米ドル増加すると見込まれています。

次の表には各TPP諸国のデータが記載されており、米国の投資家が利用できる調達市場を示しています。

  GDP(米ドル) 政府調達のGDP のパーセンテージ(%) 政府調達の総額(米ドル)
オーストラリア 1兆5,600億 12.44 194,064,000,000
ブルネイ 114億7,000万 4.1 470,270,000
カナダ 1兆8,270億 13.34 243,721,800,000
チリ 1799億 2.9 5,217,100,000
マレーシア 3053億 25 76,325,000,000
メキシコ 1兆2,610億 5.16 65,067,600,000
ニュージーランド 1858億 14.56 27,052,480,000
ペルー 1926億 17.6 33,897,600,000
シンガポール 2741億 9.74 26,697,340,000
ベトナム 1714億 12.84 21,000,000,000 -22,000,000,000
日本 TPP批准済) 4兆9,200億 16.22 798,024,000,000

注釈、上記は2006 年~2017年の期間のデータです。

上記に示したように、TPP諸国の政府調達額は総額1兆4,920億米ドルにもなります!

またそれらは古い数字です。多くの国は経済成長が著しい国となっています。現在の総額はさらに高いでしょう。

米国はこの絶好の機会を逃すつもりですか?

TPPの大きな進展は、これまで政府調達に同意せず、また既存の米国自由貿易協定(FTA)やWTOの政府調達協定(GPA)に同意していないベトナム、マレーシア及びブルネイの3カ国でさえも同意すると約束したことでしょう。これは米国の商品生産者やサービス企業にとって重要な輸出機会となります。現在、中国企業が最も利益を上げています。ベトナムの国営企業の電力、鉱業、製造、鉄鋼そして化学プロジェクトの90%を中国企業が請け負っているのです。中国国家建設エンジニアリング社(CSCEC)は業績が芳しくなく、贈賄罪により世界銀行のブラックリストに載ってはいますが、それでも重要な契約を獲得し続けています。TPPにより市場が米国企業に対し開かれ、おそらく歓迎されるでしょう。

一部のアジア太平洋諸国及びその他の国々では、外国の入札者に不利益をもたらす政策を実施しています。TPPでは初めてベトナムやマレーシアなどの国がアメリカの協力を求めることが可能になります。政府調達に関する手続き及び法改正は米国の輸出業者に対し以前閉ざされていた市場への介入、そしてより効果的に競争することを可能にします。

その上、カナダはNAFTA(北米自由協定)の公約をTPPの基準まで引き上げることに同意しました。新たなGPAの水準は2014年度のWTOガイダンスに基づきNAFTAよりも強力な公約となっています。

米国は二国間協定が締結するまで待てないはずです!

最初にTPPの交渉が始まってから既に12年が経過しています。NAFTA(4年)、COMESA(16年)、そしてSAFTA(9年)などの国際条約が締結までに膨大な時間を要したように、二国間協定も同様に時間を要します。また成功するという保証などありません。実際はむしろ上手くいかないでしょう。マレーシア、ブルネイ及びベトナムのような国々は政府調達の規制に合意するという大きな措置をとりました。二国間協定がどのくらいの期間を要するかは、4年前に締結された欧州連合とベトナム自由貿易協定(EVFTA)に示された通りです。しかしながら、EVFTAは政府調達の規則に関するTPPの基準に達していません。公正で透明性が高く予想可能で被差別的な市場の創設を延期すべきではありません。GPAの水準がこれまで以上に高くなる可能性があるからです。これ以上良い協定を交渉する可能性は極めて低いですし、中国やロシアが米国に取って代わる可能性は非常に高いです。日本の安倍晋三首相は既に中国に中心が移る可能性があると述べています。しかし、中国に目を向けているのは日本だけではありません。オーストラリア、ニュージーランド、ベトナム、マレーシア、シンガポールそしてブルネイが既に中国とのFTAの交渉を進めています。

この協定を見送ることで米国は何十億もの経費がかかり、多くの労力を失うことになります。二国間協定の交渉は多大な時間及び費用がかかり、またTPPに近いGPA基準に達することは非常に難しいでしょう。

それでも米国は待つことができますか?

答えはNOのはずです!

敬具

オリバー・マスマン

*上記に関し更なる情報をご希望の場合は、直ぐにご提供致します。

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