Michael Obeiter is a Senior Public Affairs Advisor in Holland & Knight's Washington D.C. office

In the constantly shifting post-election landscape, Holland & Knight's overview on what to expect on energy and environmental issues in the post-election lame-duck congressional session and the 116th Congress remains as valid today as it was when it was published. (See Holland & Knight's alert, " Post-Election Energy and Environment Outlook for Lame-Duck Session and the 116th Congress," Nov. 7, 2018.) However, recent developments afford the ability to offer new insights on political and policy changes to look for in the lame-duck session, and what they could mean for the next two years.

First, committee shuffling in the Senate could have significant ripple effects in the energy space. Should Sen. Bill Nelson (D-Fla.), the current ranking member on the Senate Commerce Committee, lose his bid for re-election after the Florida recount, the position will be available for Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) if she wants it. While that would require giving up the ranking membership of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee where she has forged a solid and productive working relationship with Chairwoman Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), the Commerce Committee's jurisdiction is relevant to many important industries in her home state – including technology, aviation and fisheries.

If Nelson loses and Cantwell opts to become the top Democrat on the Commerce Committee, the ranking membership of Energy and Natural Resources would go to either Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) – currently the ranking member on the Senate Agriculture Committee – or Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.). Coming from such a coal-heavy state, Manchin's views on energy are to the right of most remaining Senate Democrats, so there will be a push for Sen. Stabenow to give up her post on Agriculture in favor of Energy and Natural Resources. In that event, look for a significant push from Sen. Stabenow to get the 2018 Farm Bill passed during the lame-duck session so that her input and priorities are represented in that legislation.

Second, there is even more uncertainty around nominations now than there was in the immediate aftermath of the election. News reports suggest that it is increasingly likely that Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke will resign before the end of the year, and that President Donald Trump will nominate current Deputy Secretary David Bernhardt in his stead. However, the resignation of Attorney General Jeff Sessions and the appointment of his former chief of staff, Matthew Whitaker, as Acting Attorney General has added another layer – and potentially another time-consuming nomination – into the lame-duck session. Given the sensitivity around the Robert Mueller investigation, and whether Acting Attorney General Whitaker should oversee it, the Senate may not have time to consider any other nominations.

Third, in the House of Representatives, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has sent strong signals that she will re-establish the Select Committee on Energy Independence and Global Warming that she formed in 2007, should she be elected Speaker. That panel helped shepherd far-reaching climate legislation through the House, but was disbanded when Republicans took the majority following the 2010 elections. While this will not have a direct impact on policy until the next Congress, we expect to see a number of members jockey for position during the lame-duck session and introduce climate-focused legislation in the hopes of being asked to chair that committee.

None of this should affect the need to pass appropriations bills to keep the government funded or the appetite in either chamber to work on tax extenders or public lands issues, all of which were covered in our recent alert. We will continue to monitor developments, as each day holds the potential for new surprises.

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