Transcript

Ben Bland: And the big question is, will that be enough to get the backing of the UK Parliament? And does it give businesses the certainty that they have craved for so long? Well, with me is Bernardine Atkins, Head of EU Trade and Competition at the international law firm Gowling WLG. Bernardine, does this deal give businesses the certainty they've been looking for?

Bernardine Adkins: Yes and no. It really is, I think it's the end of the beginning, because yes, unlocking the key of Northern Ireland and reconciling the Good Friday Agreement with leaving is a good thing, presuming it gets through the UK Parliament, but now we will have a transitional period to December of next year, likely then we'll have an extension in that transitional period, while from a legal perspective things stay the same for a further two years, but what we still don't know is what form of arrangement we're going to have with the EU moving forward. Now it's very important for people to focus on the political declaration, because this sets out the aspirations as between the EU and the UK, and the UK has agreed that we, the UK, will stay aligned with the EU regulatory systems, and they call it the level playing field. So, we will stay aligned to the high levels of environmental protection, social protections, employment rights, we will stay aligned to those. And Michel Barnier really marked the UK's card today in the press conference. He said the EU 27, the 27 member states, and the European Parliament, will follow very ... as will business, because this is very important to business, that the UK stay within that EU regulatory ambit, that EU regulatory sphere, for consistency, transparency and certainty. It's so much easier for a business to comply with one set of EU rules, rather than to have to comply with a UK set and then the EU set as well.

Ben: Hang on! Bernardine, it sounds like what you're saying is that where we've got to is a point where despite all that's gone on before, the UK will continue to follow the same EU rules that it was following before.

Bernardine: Absolutely, there is a slight of hand happening here, and people really do need to focus on the detail. This is in the political declaration and people need to focus on this, and you could say oh well, it's just a political declaration, we can walk away from it, and that means there will be a trust issue, because a political declaration means something, it certainly means something to the EU. This is essentially what we have agreed we will do for the future, what our free trade arrangements will look like in the future. And if the UK does decide to resile from that agreement, it means that the chances of having a free trade arrangement, open trade between the UK and the EU become vanishingly small. It will be very, very difficult to have such a trade agreement without us being within that regulatory ambit.

Ben: OK, but with that in mind, there is this consent issue for Northern Ireland, and it means that every four years the Northern Ireland Assembly, if it's sitting, will get to vote on whether this temporary arrangement continues or not.

Bernardine: Yes.

Ben: Now presumably that creates uncertainty for businesses on a cycle?

Bernardine: Well it certainly does just within Northern Ireland, and don't forget, Northern Ireland is statistically not such a huge part of commerce for the UK. So, that is more aligned to peace and prosperity in Northern Ireland, which, as you know, is quite a delicate situation. So that is not so much of concern for business as what is the long-term trajectory for the UK, what are its ambitions in terms of its regulation moving forward? And as things stand, the political declaration says that we, the UK, must comply, it will commit to maintaining that level playing field, which essentially means complying with the EU standards.

Ben: OK. Bernardine, really interesting to get your take on that. Bernardine Adkins there, from Gowling WLG.

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